Methods of inquiry and comprehensiveness in strategic decision-making under extreme uncertainty

One of the open questions in the strategic decision-making process literature is how best to promote decision comprehensiveness in turbulent environments characterized by rapid, discontinuous and unpredictable change. Drawing on the literature on the psychology of reasoning, we consider the relevance for this question of two methods of inquiry: counterfactual reasoning and disconfirmation. We argue that counterfactual reasoning is likely to be the more effective of the two in promoting decision comprehensiveness while counteracting well-known decision biases, in situations of extreme uncertainty.