Scenarios for future media policy

This paper asks what policy scenarios are most appropriate to secure the quality of news and current affairs in Norway? Combining media economics, news sociology and strategic management theory, the paper analyses the effects of digitisation on the economy of the omnibus, specialist and broadcasting news organisations that engender the national news agenda. Appropriate for analysing causalities in rapidly changing environments, the paper uses interviews with key stakeholders, policy document analysis, and scenario analysis to investigate the degree to which key player behaviour, causal relationships, prevailing trends, critical uncertainties and impacts will have significant, moderate or limited; and positive negative or neutral impacts on the infrastructure of public deliberation, and the likelihood of achieving policy goals. The results enable a mapping of possible futures for the news media industries in Norway, and the impact of policy frameworks on the industry’s ability to produce quality news.