Fertility transition in Asia: past experiences and future directions.

During the second half of the twentieth century many countries and areas in the region witnessed remarkable declines in fertility. For the region as a whole the total fertility rate (TFR) dropped from 5.6 births per woman during the period 1950-1955 to 4.0 in 1975-1980. Fertility continued to fall to 3.3 during the period 1985-1990 and 2.6 in 1995-2000. The TFR of the region is currently estimated at 2.4 births per woman (United Nations 2003). However this regional average masks a considerable difference in the TFR observed among subregions. The TFR has plummeted to below the replacement level in East and North-East Asia (1.8 births per woman) and North and Central Asia (1.5 births per woman). In sharp contrast. South and South-West Asia exhibit a TFR of 3.2 births per woman. The South-East Asian subregion has a TFR of 2.5 births per woman (ESCAP 2003). This paper begins with a discussion on levels and trends in fertility and presents age patterns of fertility by subregions; it then examines the factors leading to fertility decline. Country experiences are presented to highlight the relative impact of social and economic development vis-a-vis government interventions for family planning programmes aimed at reducing fertility. Drawing from experiences from countries with success stories in reducing fertility this paper concludes with future prospects for fertility decline in countries that have high or moderately high fertility. (authors)