Exponential Predictive Model of Excavation Damages on a Natural Gas Distribution Network Situated on Metropolitan Regions of São Paulo State – Brazil

This study develops and demonstrates an exponential equation whose variables, Brazilian industrial quarterly GDP index and the total natural gas pipe length (transmission, distribution and external services) of a Brazilian distribution company, has the ability to predict the Absolut amount of third party excavation damages (annual monthly average value). With the use of the quarterly macroeconomic projection of Brazilian industry GDP and the company expansion scenarios is possible to simulate the amount excavation’s damages and establish an adequate dimensioning of actions for the predicted scenario over the natural gas pipes inside metropolitan areas.