A hierarchical Bayesian approach for risk assessment of melamine in infant formula based on cases of related nephrolithiasis in children

Although the 2008 outbreak of nephrolithiasis in children due to melamine-contaminated infant formula has subsided, it remains uncertain whether the present tolerable daily intake (TDI) of melamine provides sufficient protection for young children. To conduct a safety assessment for melamine in infant formula, we established a dose–response relationship based on 13 nephrolithiasis cases selected from 932 children, all of whom were under 5 years of age and had potentially been exposed to contaminated milk in China or Taiwan. According to the children's exposure history, distributions of individual daily melamine intake (mg/kg BW/day) were reconstructed using Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties in exposure duration and melamine concentrations in the contaminated milk. Based on the simulated individual average daily intake (AVDI) of melamine, subjects were further classified into four separate AVDI groups: high, medium, low and a reference group. A statistical logistic model was then fitted ...