Tumor mutation burden in blood predicts benefit from neoadjuvant chemo/radiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

Abstract Distant metastasis has been the major concern of prognosis in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of TMB in blood (bTMB) in LARC patients after receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and surgery. Using targeted ctDNA sequencing, we revealed that bTMB level at baseline was positively correlated with recurrence-free survival (RFS). Following nCRT, the patients with decreasing TMB tends to have a longer median RFS. bTMB level after surgery was negatively correlated with RFS. The serum cytokines including IFNγ, IFNα2, IL-1β, IL-2 and MIP-1β were significantly higher in pre-nCRT serum with higher bTMB group than that of lower bTMB group. Clonal evolution analysis showed that the pre- and post-nCRT ctDNAs of most cases had shared mutations. In conclusion, we presume that bTMB could potentially improve pre- and post-treatment risk assessment and facilitate individualized therapy for patients with LARC.