Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach

The industrial sector dominates the global energy consumption and carbon emissions in end use sectors, and it faces challenges in emission reductions to reach the Paris Agreement goals. This paper analyzes and quantifies the relationship between industrialization, energy systems, and carbon emissions. Firstly, it forecasts the global and regional industrialization trends under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway2 (SSP2) scenarios. Then, it projects the global and regional energy consumption that aligns with the industrialization trend, and optimizes the global energy supply system using the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) model for the industrial sector. Moreover, it develops an expanded Kaya identity to comprehensively investigate the drivers of industrial carbon emissions. In addition, it employs a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to track the historical contributions of various drivers of carbon emissions, as well as predictions into the future. This paper finds that economic development and population growth are the two largest drivers for historical industrial CO2 emissions, and that carbon intensity and industry energy intensity are the top two drivers for the decrease of future industrial CO2 emissions. Finally, it proposes three modes, i.e., clean supply, electrification, and energy efficiency for industrial emission reduction.