Modeling Larval Connectivity of Coral Reef Organisms in the Kenya-Tanzania Region

Most coral reef organisms have a bipartite life-cycle; they are site attached to reefs as adults but have pelagic larval stages that allow them to disperse to other reefs. Connectivity among coral reef patches is critical to the survival of local populations of reef organisms, and requires movement across gaps that are not suitable habitat for recruitment. Knowledge of population connectivity among individual reef habitats within a broader geographic region of coral reefs has been identified as key to developing efficient spatial management strategies to protect marine ecosystems. The study of larval connectivity of marine organisms is a complex multidisciplinary challenge that is difficult to address by direct observation alone. An approach that couples ocean circulation models with individual based models (IBMs) of larvae with different degrees of life-history complexity has been previously used to assess connectivity patterns in several coral reef regions (e.g., the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and the Caribbean). We applied the IBM particle tracking approach to the Kenya-Tanzania region, which exhibits strong seasonality in the alongshore currents due to the influence of the monsoon. A 3-dimensional (3D) ocean circulation model with 2 km horizontal resolution was coupled to IBMs that track virtual larvae released from each of 661 reef habitats, associated with 15 distinct regions. Given that reefs provide homes to numerous species, each with distinctive, and in aggregate very diverse life-histories, several life-history scenarios were modeled to examine the variety of dispersal and connectivity patterns possible. We characterize virtual larvae of Acropora corals and Acanthurus surgeonfish, two coral reef inhabitants with greatly differing pelagic life-histories, to examine the effects of short (50 days) pelagic larval durations (PLD), differences in swimming abilities (implemented as reef perception distances), and active depth keeping in reef connectivity. Acropora virtual larvae were modeled as 3D passive particles with a precompetency period of 4 days, a total PLD of 12 days and a perception distance of 10 m. Acanthurus virtual larvae were characterized by 50 days precompetency period, a total PLD of 72 days and a perception distance of 4 km. Acanthurus virtual larvae were modeled in