Coordinating urban construction and district-level population density for balanced development: An explorative structural equation modeling analysis on Shanghai

Abstract Balanced development is essential for sustainable development. Investigating the coordination between urban construction and district-level population density can deepen the knowledge of balanced development on the urban scale and promote better delivery of planning policy. This study took Shanghai as an example to explore the influence of three kinds of urban construction – market-driven urban construction, public transportation infrastructure and public service facilities – on district-level population density with longitudinal data (2003–2017). Nine variables were selected through a comprehensive review of the literature and the policy/planning practices of Shanghai. Structural equation modeling (SEM) and stepwise multivariate linear regression (SMLR) were integrated, forming an explorative SEM analysis framework to analyze the significance of the variables and their interplay. The results showed that market-driven urban construction had the most significant influence on district-level population density. However, it was not well integrated with public service facilities. Additionally, public service facilities and public transportation were not evenly distributed. Therefore, policies on improving the public transportation network and coordinating the three types of urban construction is imperative.