Modeling and Preparedness: The Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Outbreak in Provinces of Ecuador

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a novel infectious disease first identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan of China, is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The disease has become a pandemic in just a few months and spread globally with more than 2.89 million cases and 203,000 deaths across 185 countries, as of April 26th, 2020. Ecuador has reported one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in Latin America, with more than 10K cases and 500 deaths in a country of approximately 17 million people. The dynamics of the outbreak is being observed quite different in different provinces of Ecuador with high reported prevalence in some low population density provinces. In this study, we aim to understand variations in outbreaks between provinces and provide assistance in essential preparedness planning in order to respond effectively to ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. The study estimated the critical level of quarantine rate along with corresponding leakage in order to avoid overwhelming the local health care system. The results suggest that provinces with high population density can avoid a large disease burden provided they initiate early and stricter quarantine measures even under low isolation rate. To best of our knowledge, this study is first from the region to determine which provinces will need much preparation for current outbreak in fall and which might need more help.