Increasing aridity threatens the sexual regeneration of Quercus ilex(holm oak) in Mediterranean ecosystems.

Knowledge of the recruitment of dominant forest species is a key aspect for forest conservation and the ecosystem services they provide. In this paper, we address how the simultaneous action of climate change and the intensity of land use in the past influence the recruitment of a forest species that depends on the provision of nurse plants to recruit. We compared the number of saplings (up to 15 years old) and juveniles (16 to 50 years old) of Quercus ilex in 17, 5.3 ha plots in the Iberian System (eastern Spain). We used a gradient of past deforestation intensity crossed with two levels of average annual precipitation, one of them at the lower limit of the species' precipitation niche (semi-arid) and the other at the optimum (sub-humid). We also examined the association between recruits and nurse plants and the effect on this association of plot-scale factors, such as seed abundance (reproductive Q. ilex), microsites (nurse species and soil availability), and large herbivores. The increase in aridity in the last decades has drastically reduced the recruitment of new individuals in the forests of Q. ilex located in the lower limit of their precipitation niche, regardless of the intensity of past deforestation that they suffered. Recruitment in these climatic conditions depends almost exclusively on large trees and shrubs whose abundance may also be limited by aridity. The lack of regeneration questions the future of these populations, as the number of individuals will decrease over time despite the strong resistance of adult trees to disturbance and drought.