Economic impact of the Commission's 'opt-out' proposal on the use of approved GM crops : quick assessment of the medium-term economic consequences

The European Commission proposed the opportunity for individual EU Member States to restrict or prohibit the use of GMOs in food or feed on their territory (a national ‘opt-out’). The economic impact on individual sectors of the feed and food chain (the vegetable oil and meal industry, trade, animal feed industry, livestock sector) of a possible opt-out policy for soy by individual Member States has been assessed by LEI Wageningen UR. A single scenario was defined in which the four countries France, Germany, Poland and Hungary choose an ‘opt-out’ policy for soy. Consequences of this switch to non-GM soy and substitutes were assessed both quantitatively and qualitatively for feed prices, for production costs for animal production, for crushing industry and for trade, with a focus on the medium term