[Temporal and spatial variability of livestock and poultry productions and manure nutrients in Shanxi Province, China].

China's livestock and poultry productions have changed significantly in the last three decades, from mainly traditional and small-scale systems in early 1980s towards more intensive and industrialized ones in recent years, due to the booming economy and the changes in people' diet. There is an urgent need to increase the understanding of the changes in the livestock and poultry productions and the impact of manure recycle on the environment. Here, we reported on a systematic and quantitative analysis on the temporal and spatial variability of livestock and poultry productions and manure nutrients in Shanxi Province, China, using a large database and a coupled food chain nutrient flow model (NUFER) with GIS. In the period of 1978 to 2012, total animal manure production increased from 1.61×10 7 t to 2.75×10 7 t by 171%. The manure N increased from 7.74×10 4 t to 17.32×10 4 t, and the manure P from 1.09×10 4 t to 3.39×10 4 t. Besides the huge increase in total animal manure production, the distribution of animal manure was much uneven among regions, with high amounts of manure N and P per unit land in the north, middle and southeastern regions and low values in the north-central and southwestern regions, based on the results of 2012. The uneven distribution of manure was the combined effect of regional specializations in livestock and poultry productions and related policies. Our findings suggested that optimizing the structure of livestock and poultry productions and enhancing interregional collaborations on nutrient management could be two effective measures for reducing pollution and environmental risks, while achieving efficient and sustainable use of manure nutrient in the long term.