Volcanic Eruption and Human Geoscience

Volcanic hazards are very variable and the impacts are not proportional to the scales of eruptions. It is clear that volcanic activity in Japan has been quiet during these hundred years in comparison with those in other volcanic countries. Very large eruptions may be possible in the near future, by considering the probability and the time that passed after the last large eruptions. The impacts from the large eruptions were discussed at the timing of resumption of the nuclear power plants. Although the method to forecast volcanic eruptions had been developed, we repeatedly failed to forecast onsets of eruptions and to expect the development of eruptions. By experiencing these failures, the eruption scenarios covering possible eruptive phenomena and sequences (eruption event-tree models) became to consider in the recent research project. The Volcanological Society of Japan commented about the issue related to large volcanic eruptions; for example, how the nation and volcanologists should be and how the research results should be used. The research results should be utilized for increasing the resilience of the residents against volcanic hazards.