Enfoque integral para la evaluación probabilista del riesgo (CAPRA): iniciativa internacional para la efectividad de la gestión del riesgo de desastre

Understanding disaster risk due to hazard events, such as earthquakes, creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. This has been the reason why CAPRA, the risk evaluation model described in this paper, was developed with the technical and financial support of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the International Strategy of United Nations for Disaster Reduction (ISDR). CAPRA is a techno-scientific methodology and information platform, composed of tools for the evaluation and communication of risk at various territorial levels. This model allows the evaluation of probabilistic losses on exposed elements using probabilistic metrics, such as the exceedance probability curve, expected annual loss and probable maximum loss, useful for multi-hazard/risk analyses. The platform is conceptually oriented to facilitate decision making; using CAPRA is possible to design risk transfer instruments, the evaluation of probabilistic cost-benefit ratio, providing an innovative tool for decision makers to analyze the net benefits of the risk mitigation strategies, such as building retrofitting. This model is useful for land use planning, loss scenarios for emergency response, early warning, on-line loss assessment mechanisms, and for the holistic evaluation of disaster risk based on indicators that facilitates the integrated risk management by the different stakeholders involved in risk reduction decision-making. CAPRA has been used in Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Guyana, the Central American countries, Spain, Nepal, and its experiences are a contribution for the current development of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM).