Model-based spatial-temporal mapping of opisthorchiasis in endemic countries of Southeast Asia

Opisthorchiasis is an overlooked danger to Southeast Asia. High-resolution disease risk maps are critical for targeting control interventions to priority areas; however, they haven9t been available for Southeast Asia. A Bayesian spatial-temporal joint model was developed, where both point-referenced and area-level data were assumed to follow a binomial distribution, modeling with a logit regression in combination of potential influencing factors and spatial-temporal random effects. The model-based risk mapping identified area of high prevalence (>25%) of opisthorchiasis in northeastern Thailand, central-southern parts of Laos, and some eastern areas of Cambodia from 2010 onwards. And a total of 13.13 million (95% BCI: 11.43-15.21) people were infected with O. viverrini in 2018 in four major endemic countries (ie, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam) of Southeast Asia, with a prevalence of 6.96% (95% BCI: 6.06%-8.06%). These model-based high-resolution risk maps can provide important information to guide the spatial targeting of opisthorchiasis control interventions.