Probabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in North Cascadiaby exploiting sequential design for efficient emulation

Abstract. The potential of a full-margin rupture along the Cascadia subduction zone poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. Traditional probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments produce hazard maps based on simulated prediction of tsunami waves either under limited ranges of scenarios or at low resolution, due to cost. We use the GPU-accelerated tsunami simulator VOLNA-OP2 with a detailed representation of topographic and bathymetric features. We replace the simulator by a Gaussian Process emulator at each output location to overcome the large computational burden. The emulators are statistical approximations of the simulator behaviour. We train the emulators on a set of input-output pairs and use them to generate approximate output values over a six-dimensional scenario parameter space, e.g., uplift/subsidence ratio, maximum uplift, that represent the seabed deformation. We implement an advanced sequential design algorithm for the optimal selection of only sixty simulations. This approach allows for a first emulation-accelerated computation of probabilistic tsunami hazard in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The low cost of emulation provides for additional flexibility in the shape of the deformation, which we illustrate here, considering two families, buried rupture and splay-faulting, of 2,000 potential scenarios.