On-line probabilistic dynamic security assessment considering large scale wind power penetration

Probabilistic on-line dynamic security assessment (DSA) for large grid with large-scale wind power integration is proposed. Instead of probability distribution of wind speed and wind generation forecast error, wind power uncertainty is modeled by wind power variation probability distribution, which can be obtained by analyzing historical data of DSA. A modified procedure based on Monte Carlo simulation is used. Discrete model and contingencies reducing strategies are used to find possible fluctuation combinations of different wind power bases. Then both steady-state security analysis and transient stability analysis are carried out and risk indices are calculated. The proposed method is validated in the north-west China power grid, which has many large-scale wind plant bases.