A spatially-explicit empirical model for assessing conservation values of conifer plantations

Abstract Plantations are expanding globally and dominate landscapes in many parts of the world. Biodiversity conservation within plantations is becoming an important issue and developing indicators of conservation values is valuable. Although plantations support less biodiversity than natural forests, older plantations can provide habitat for some native trees and associated biota. The amount (basal area) of native trees can be a simple indicator of conservation value of plantations. Various factors are likely to affect rates of increase in native trees in plantations with stand age. We developed an empirical model to predict the amount of broad-leaved trees as an indicator of conservation value of conifer plantations. We quantified relationships between rates of increase in the amount of broad-leaved trees and plantation tree species, density of planted trees, climate, topography and landscape cover. We used a hierarchical modeling framework based on extensive snapshot plot data ( n  = 3265 plots) from the national forest inventory in Japan. Our results showed that plantation tree species had the largest effect on the rate of increase in broad-leaved trees. Japanese cedar Cryptomeria japonica and hinoki cypress Chamaecyparis obtuse , which are two primary plantation species in Japan (both from the cypress family), had low rates of increase. In plantations of other species (red pine, larch, fir and spruce from the pine family), broad-leaved trees started to increase in amount after 20 years. We found that 50-year-old plantations of the pine family supported 10–20% of the amount of broad-leaved trees typically found in old-growth natural forests. Planted tree density also had important, but nonlinear relationships with the rate of increase in broad-leaved trees. Stands with fewer planted trees had higher rates of increase in broad-leaved trees. Rates of increase also were associated with snow depth, temperature, slope angle and the amount of natural forest in the surroundings. Our results suggest that management practices related to stand age, selection of plantation species and the density of planted trees can contribute to the conservation value of plantations. As our model is based on broadly available covariates and accommodates stand age, it may be applicable to other regions under different management regimes.