Numerical modeling and forecast of channel changes on the river Lena near city Yakutsk
2019
Abstract. STREAM_2D software package was applied to
retrospective and predictive simulations of the Lena River near city Yakutsk
hydraulic and channel changes during ice-free period. The modelling results
indicate significant correspondence of simulated water discharges
distribution and water levels with observed ones for the period 2001–2016.
Model has captured main erosion and depositional zones observed in the
2009–2016 years. Combination of typical monthly average hydrographs of 1 %,
10 % and 50 % return intervals was used as an initial parameter for 10-year
channel changes forecast. According to the simulation results, degradation
of the Adamovskaya branch will be continued, which is the most negative
impact for the Yakutsk city infrastructure maintenance. At the end of the
forecast period the equal distribution between Adamovskaya and Buorylarskaya
channels is possible, which is a positive trend from the point of view of
the city water supply system.
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