Comprime - Conhecer mais para intervir melhor: Preliminary mapping of municipal level determinants of covid-19 transmission in Portugal at different moments of the 1st epidemic wave

Background: The role of demographic and socio-economic determinants of COVID-19 transmission is still unclear and is expected to vary in different contexts and epidemic periods Exploring such determinants may generate a hypothesis about transmission and aid the definition of prevention strategies Objectives: To identify municipality-level demographic and socio-economic determinants of COVID-19 in Portugal Methods: We assessed determinants of COVID-19 daily cases at 4 moments of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Portugal, related with lockdown and post-lockdown measures We selected 60 potential determinants from 5 dimensions: population and settlement, disease, economy, social context, and mobility We conducted a multiple linear regression (MLR) stepwise analysis (p < 0 05) and an artificial neural network (ANN) analysis with the variables to identify predictors of the number of daily cases Results: For MLR, some of the identified variables were: resident population and population density, exports, overnight stays in touristic facilities, the location quotient of employment in accommodation, catering and similar activities, education, restaurants and lodging, some industries and building construction, the share of the population working outside the municipality, the net migration rate, income, and renting In ANN, some of the identified variables were: population density and resident population, urbanization, students in higher education, income, exports, social housing buildings, production services employment, and the share of the population working outside the municipality of residence Conclusions: Several factors were identified as possible determinants of CO-VID-19 transmission at the municipality level Despite limitations to the study, we believe that this information should be considered to promote communication and prevention approaches Further research should be conducted © 2021 The Author(s) Published by S Karger AG, Basel