What Do You Say Before You Relapse? How Language Use in a Peer-to-peer Online Discussion Forum Predicts Risky Drinking among Those in Recovery

ABSTRACTIncreasingly, individuals with alcohol use disorder (AUD) seek and provide support for relapse prevention in text-based online environments such as discussion forums. This paper investigates whether language use within a peer-to-peer discussion forum can predict future relapse among individuals treated for AUD. A total of 104 AUD sufferers who had completed residential treatment participated in a mobile phone-based relapse-prevention program, where they communicated via an online forum over the course of a year. We extracted patterns of language use on the forum within the first four months on study using Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC), a dictionary-based text analysis program. Participants reported their incidence of risky drinking via a survey at 4, 8, and 12 months. A logistic regression model was built to predict the likelihood that individuals would engage in risky drinking within a year based on their language use, while controlling for baseline characteristics and rates of utilizi...