Risks and Recoveries from Extreme Disruptions in Freight Transportation System in a Megacity: Case Study for the Greater Los Angeles Area

This research examines the risks imposed on and recoveries of transportation systems in megacities as the result of extreme events such as earthquakes. It also addresses the economic impact due to earthquake scenarios locally as well as nationwide. REDARS software is used to estimate disruption level of earthquake on roadways and bridges. The integrated model consisting of a macroscopic terminal simulator, microscopic traffic simulator, and terminal cost model is developed to estimate the changes in traffic flows due to earthquake and to evaluate the economic impact at the local level. Macroscopic terminal simulator is used to model movement inside container terminals. Road network adjacent to the container terminal are constructed by microscopic traffic flow simulator (VISSIM) and is connected to sea-ports. Also, terminal operational cost model is developed to evaluate additional terminal costs due to disruptions to traffic flows. All three models are integrated with each other, so that various disruption scenarios can be evaluated using the integrated model. NIEMO software is used to evaluate the economic impact of extreme events globally. Southern California is regarded as the region of study and results demonstrate the efficiency of the integrated model. The model can be used to evaluate any other disruptions to sea-ports such as terrorist attack or tsunami.