Edificación residencial, crowding out y política de viviendas

espanolEl articulo desarrolla un analisis para la identificacion de efectos crowding entre las viviendas iniciadas privadas y publicas en Espana y en 8 provincias, identificando efectos de expulsion (crowding out) o de empuje (crowding in) de la construccion privada ante acciones de incentivo a la edificacion publica. La metodologia utiliza el entorno de vectores autorregresivos estimando las relaciones de cointegracion entre ambos ciclos. Los resultados identifican efectos de crowding out en Caceres y Madrid, efectos similares pero en direccion contraria, desde la edificacion privada impulsando la publica en Vizcaya; no se identifican efectos estadisticamente significativos en Guadalajara y Zaragoza y un efecto crowding in en Alicante en las dos direcciones. EnglishHis paper analyses the existence of crowding effects between the public and private housing cycles in eight selected Spanish provinces. It identifies the crowding out and crowding in effects in private house development cycle when incentives to public unit construction appears. Using autorregressive Vector and cointegration methodologies, the exercise allows to estimate the influence and causality in two directions, that is, how any impulse in private hose-building affect to public house starts and how public incentives constructing dweelings can push the private construction. The paper finds the existence of crowding out effects between public towards private house-building in Caceres and Madrid; similar effects but in the inverse direction have been found in Vizcaya where the private building is crowding in public house-building. There is no crowding effect, in any direction, identified in Guadalajara and Zaragoza and there is a strong two-directions crowding-in effect reinforcing house-building in Alicante.