Macro-markets and Environmental Futures

Prediction markets offer a new forecasting method whereby people trade future outcomes as on a stock exchange. This results in dynamic consensus probability estimations of future events whose superior accuracy has been documented in numerous domains including boxoffice, product sales, political elections, sports, regulatory forecasting, etc. Applied to the forecasting of important environmental outcomes, prediction markets could help deepen public awareness of the problems and possible solutions, cut through the fog of ambiguous scientific discourse, evaluate alternative scenarios of doom or salvation, and identify the more trustworthy experts.