Genetic,Physiological,andLifestylePredictorsof MortalityintheGeneralPopulation

Results. We observed 3174 deaths during follow-up. The fully adjusted model (C-statistic for 15-year follow-up [C15y] = 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.75, 0.77) predicted mortality well. Most of the additional information apart from age and sex stemmed from physiological markers, prevalent diseases, and general health. Socioeconomic factors and lifestyle contributed meaningfully to mortality risk prediction with longer prediction horizon. Although specific genetic factors were independently associated with mortality, jointly they contributed little to mortality prediction (C15y= 0.56; 95% CI = 0.55, 0.57). Conclusions. Mortality can be predicted reasonably well over a long period. Genetic factors independently predict mortality, but only modestly more than other risk indicators. (Am J Public Health. 2012;102:e3‐e10. doi:10.2105/AJPH. 2011.300596)