Long-term predictions of the energy development - possibilities and challenges
2016
In this paper the possibilities, disadvantages and benefits of long-term
planning of energy development, are analysed. The factors influencing the
development of energy and the factors influencing the accuracy of forecasting
of the future development of energy are presented. The uncertainties that
make the differences in modelling on a global scale, as well as the
uncertainties that make the differences in modelling of the energy
development of the Republic of Macedonia are also presented. Sensitivity
analysis of the influence of different factors on the development of energy
in the Republic of Macedonia was carried out. For those purposes the energy
development of the Republic of Macedonia for the period up to 2035 year is
calculated by using MARKAL model. The main features of the MARKAL model are
also presented.
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