El impacto del Brexit en la economía española

We estimate the micro and macroeconomic effects of Brexit using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We simulate several scenarios: exit without agreement, UK stay in the European customs union, Boris Johnson's Brexit proposal, soft Brexit and a combination of Boris Johnson's Brexit with a possible treaty with the US. The model includes business heterogeneity a la Melitz (2003) and multinationals in services. The impact for Spain is limited, although the more distant the future relationship is (i.e., the higher the barriers to trade and foreign direct investment are) the more damaging Brexit becomes.