Data-Driven Definitions for Active and Structural MRI Lesions in the Sacroiliac Joint in Spondyloarthritis and their Predictive Utility.

OBJECTIVES To determine quantitative sacroiliac joint (SIJ) MRI lesion cut-offs that optimally define a positive MRI for inflammatory and structural lesions typical of axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) and that predict clinical diagnosis. METHODS The ASAS MRI group assessed MRIs from the ASAS Classification Cohort in two reading exercises: A. 169 cases and 7 central readers; B. 107 cases and 8 central readers. We calculated sensitivity/specificity for the number of SIJ quadrants or slices with bone marrow edema (BME), erosion, fat lesion, where a majority of central readers had high confidence there was a definite active or structural lesion. Cut-offs with ≥95% specificity were analyzed for their predictive utility for follow-up rheumatologist diagnosis of axSpA by calculating positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV) and selecting cut-offs with PPV≥95%. RESULTS Active or structural lesions typical of axSpA on MRI had PPV≥95% for clinical diagnosis of axSpA. Cut-offs that best reflect definite active lesion typical of axSpA were either ≥4 SIJ quadrants with BME at any location or at the same location in ≥ 3 consecutive slices. For definite structural lesion, the optimal cut-offs were any one of ≥ 3 SIJ quadrants with erosion or ≥ 5 with fat lesion, erosion at the same location for ≥2 consecutive slices, fat lesion at the same location for ≥3 consecutive slices, or presence of a 'deep' (>1cm) fat lesion. CONCLUSION We propose cut-offs for definite active and structural lesions typical of axSpA that have high PPV for a long-term clinical diagnosis of axSpA for application in disease classification and clinical research.