Disruptive Effects on a HLW Repository ue to Uplift-Erosion in the Distant Future

In Japan, uplift/erosion scenarios must be analysed even if they occur far in the future, as no assessment cut-off times have yet been defined. For this purpose, an argumentation method is developed to allow sensible scenarios to be constructed. The consequences of erosion of the repository may be better estimated in terms of radionuclide fluxes and these compared with those of naturally occurring radionuclides. This paper discusses procedures to derive relevant conceptual models and resultant analyses in a credible manner, which illustrates the effectiveness and robustness of the HLW disposal system.