Assessing risk of non-compliance of phosphorus standards for lakes in England and Wales

High population densities, use of inorganic fertilizer and intensive livestock agriculture have increased phosphorus loads to lakes, and accelerated eutrophication is a major pressure for many lakes. The EC Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that good chemical and ecological quality is restored in all surface water bodies by 2015. Total phosphorus (TP) standards for lakes in England and Wales have been agreed recently, and our aim was to estimate what percentage of lakes in England and Wales is at risk of failing these standards. With measured lake phosphorus concentrations only being available for a small number of lakes, such an assessment had to be model based. The study also makes a source apportionment of phosphorus inputs into lakes.