A radiological predictor for pneumomediastinum/pneumothorax in COVID-19 ARDS patients.

Abstract Purpose To determine whether Macklin effect (a linear collection of air contiguous to the bronchovascular sheath) on baseline CT imaging is an accurate predictor for subsequent pneumomediastinum (PMD)/pneumothorax (PNX) development in invasively ventilated patients with COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Materials and methods This is an observational, case-control study. From a prospectively acquired database, all consecutive invasively ventilated COVID-19 ARDS patients who underwent at least one baseline chest CT scan during the study time period (February 25th, 2020–December 31st, 2020) were identified; those who had tracheal lesion or already had PMD/PNX at the time of the first available chest imaging were excluded. Results 37/173 (21.4%) patients enrolled had PMD/PNX; specifically, 20 (11.5%) had PMD, 10 (5.8%) PNX, 7 (4%) both. 33/37 patients with subsequent PMD/PNX had Macklin effect on baseline CT (89.2%, true positives) 8.5 days [range, 1–18] before the first actual radiological evidence of PMD/PNX. Conversely, 6/136 patients without PMD/PNX (4.4%, false positives) demonstrated Macklin effect (p Conclusions Macklin effect accurately predicts, 8.5 days in advance, PMD/PNX development in COVID-19 ARDS patients.