Evaluation of currently used staging systems for survival predictability in HBsAg-positive hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Objective Basing on overall survival(OS)of HBsAg-positive hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)patients we evaluate several currently used HCC staging systems for OS predictivity.Methods This retrospective study included 775 patients with HBsAg-positive HCC treated in our department during 11-year period from Jan.2000 to Feb.2010.Clinicopathologic factors were evaluated for their possible association with OS in univariate and multivariate analysis using Cox proportional hazard model.Receiver operating characteristics(ROC)analysis with calculation of the area under the curve (AUC),sensitivity,and specificity was applied to define cutoff point values where appropriated and to assess HCC staging systems for their predictive ability of OS.Results The 1-,2-,3-and 5-year OS rates were 21.3％(165/775),9.4％(73/775),4.9％(38/775)and 1.7％(13/775),respectively.Multivariate analysis identified that severity of concomitant liver cirrhosis(B =4.519),treatment modality (B =4.888),ALT≥2N(B =4.068),portal vein tumor thrombi(B =0.537),spontaneous rupture(B =5.033)and inferior vena cava tumor thrombi(B =7.049)as independent risk factors influencing OS.NSMCS(North Sichuan Medical College Score)exhibited best performance predicting OS with AUC 0.801 (95％ CI 0.761-0.840),sensitivity of 78.8％,specificity of 69.3％ at NSMCS ≥-2.Median survival time reached statistically significant difference(13.6 mons,3.4 mons vs.1.3 mons,x2 =467.636,P =0.000).Conclusions Multiple factors determine OS in patients with HBsAg-positive HCC.NSMCS staging system demonstrates better predictability for the survival of HBsAg positive HCC patients. Key words: Carcinoma, hepatocellular; Hepatitis B surface antigens; Liver cirrhosis; Prognosis