Driven by Institutions, Shaped by Culture: Human Capital and the Secularization of Marriage in Italy

We study the mechanisms behind the process of secularization and how they relate to human capital accumulation. We fist analyze empirically the spread of civil (vs religious) marriages in Italy. Successively using a panel of municipality-level census data and a sample of individuals from a household survey, we document a robust, positive correlation between human capital and secularization in marriage. Moreover, secularization is found to be more responsive to education (i) in the presence of high levels of social capital and/or weak family ties, and (ii) after the legalization of divorce in 1971. To understand the mechanisms behind these results, we develop a theory of religiosity, education, and marriage choices, in which individuals who divorce face a relatively higher return to human capital compared to religious capital. Our theory suggests that a positive association between human capital and secularization can emerge across individuals (and localities) even in the absence of a direct effect of education on religiosity. Consistent with our empirical findings, the legalization of divorce plays a central role in unleashing the forces of secularization in marriage, and different patterns in the education - secularization nexus can be traced back to different systems of incentives, as shaped by civic capital and family ties.