Perceived Local Job Prospects and School Connectedness in a Struggling Rural Economy: A Life-Course Perspective

Late in first decade of the 2000s, the closing of pulp and paper mills in the rural northeastern United States contributed to economic decline in the region and to rising concerns about population decline due to out-migration among local emerging adults in search of occupational or educational opportunities. In this context, and drawing on a life-course framework, the present study used four waves of panel data from the population of 7th- and 11th-grade public school students in a rural northeastern U.S. county to explore whether the county unemployment rate was related to perceived local job prospects; school connectedness was related to subsequent perceived job prospects; and the effects of county unemployment and school connectedness on perceived local job prospects varied by age cohort. Initially, changes in respondents’ perceptions about local job prospects paralleled shifts in local unemployment similarly for both cohorts; yet after the older cohort respondents had completed high school, their perce...