Changing Mortality and Place of Death in Response to Refugee Influx: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study in Jordan, 2005-2016.

Background: Jordan faces complex health care challenges due to refugee influx and an aging population. Palliative care planning and delivery require data to ensure services respond to changing population needs. Objectives: To determine the trend in mortality and place of death in Jordan. Design: Population-based study. Setting/Subjects: Death registry data of adult decedents (n = 143,215), 2005-2016. Measurements: Descriptive statistics examined change in demographic and place of death (categorized as hospital and nonhospital). Binomial logistic regression compared the association between hospital deaths and demographic characteristics in 2008-2010, 2011-2013, and 2014-2016, with 2005-2007. Results: The annual number of deaths increased from 6792 in 2005 to 17,018 in 2016 (151% increase). Hospital was the most common place of death (93.7% of all deaths) in Jordan, and percentage of hospital deaths increased for Jordanian (82.6%-98.8%) and non-Jordanian decedents (88.1%-98.7%). There was an increased likelihood of hospital death among Jordanian decedents who died from nonischemic heart disease (odd ratio [OR]: 1.11, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09-1.13, p < 0.001), atherosclerosis (OR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.08-1.13, p < 0.001), renal failure (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08, p < 0.001), hemorrhagic fevers (OR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.06-1.13, p < 0.001), and injury (OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.06-1.33, p < 0.001) in the period 2014-2016, compared with 2005-2007. There were similar increases in the likelihood of hospital death among non-Jordanians in 2014-2016 for the following conditions: malignant neoplasms (except leukemia), nonischemic heart disease, atherosclerosis, injury, and HIV, compared with 2005-2007. Conclusions: Country-level palliative care development must respond to both internal (aging) and external (refugee influx) population trends. Universal Health Coverage requires palliative care to move beyond cancer and meet population-specific needs. Community-based services should be prioritized and expanded to care for the patients with nonischemic heart disease, atherosclerosis, renal failure, hemorrhagic fevers, and injury.