A nested modelling approach to infrastructure performance characterisation

AbstractReliable and accurate predictions of infrastructure condition can save significant amounts of money for infrastructure management agencies through better planned maintenance and rehabilitation activities. Infrastructure deterioration is a complicated, dynamic and stochastic process affected by various factors such as design, environmental conditions, material properties, structural capacities and some unobserved variables. Previous researchers have explored different types of modelling techniques, ranging from simple deterministic models to sophisticated probabilistic models, to characterise the deterioration process of infrastructure systems; however, these models have limitations in various aspects. Traditional deterministic models are inadequate to capture the uncertainties associated with infrastructure deterioration processes. State-based probabilistic models can only predict conditions at fixed time points. Time-based probabilistic models require frequent observations that, in practice, are ...