「中國因素」或是「公民不服從」？從連續追蹤樣本探討太陽花學運之民意

The Sunflower Movement broke out on March 18, 2014 in the Legislative Yuan, and lasted until April 10th. It marked the first time that a protest stopped a trade agreement that would have been passed by the legislature. It is also challenging to explain this movement, which involved many factors. This study, first, reviews theories of political participation and then examines the concept of civic consciousness and the China factor. We propose a multivariate model with these political predispositions. In order to address the endogeneity problem, we use panel data collected by internet surveys. The major finding is that the China factor is vital, after controlling for civil disobedience and self-identification with Pan-blue and Pan-green. This research makes a forecast on the development of civil society, and contributes to studies of non-conventional political participation.