Estimating river nutrient concentrations consistent with good ecological condition: More stringent nutrient thresholds needed

Abstract Nutrient pollution remains one of the leading causes of river degradation, making it important to set thresholds that support good ecological condition, which is the main objective of managing Europe's aquatic environment. A wide range of methods has been used by European member states to set river nutrient thresholds in the past, and these vary greatly among countries, even for similar river types. In some countries, thresholds have been set using expert judgement or the statistical distribution of nutrient concentrations. Application of such thresholds creates problems for planning strategies to achieve good ecological status and for managing transboundary river basins. An alternative approach is to examine the statistical relationship between nutrient concentration and one, or more, biological variables. Such relationships can then be used to inform decisions by water managers. We use such 'ecology-based' approaches (univariate regression and mismatch analyses) to derive nutrient thresholds for several river types in Central Europe. Our analysis focused on soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and total nitrogen (TN), two variables which were responsible for significant variation (40–55%) in river benthic floras. In this study, for the first time, river nutrient thresholds are estimated using both macrophytes and phytobenthos (EQRs) separately and in combination, calculated as the minimum and the average of the EQRs of the two sub-elements. The resulting thresholds supporting good ecological status range from 21 to 42 µg/L SRP and 0.9–3.5 mg/L TN for the low alkalinity lowland river type, and 32–90 µg/L SRP and 1.0–2.5 mg/L TN for the low alkalinity mid-altitude river type. These targets are compared to the values set by member states. We demonstrate that some national nutrient thresholds fall within the range of predicted values if uncertainty is taken into consideration; however, several threshold values considerably exceed this range. Adopting ecology-based nutrient targets should improve sustainable river management where nutrients are the major pressure preventing the achievement of good ecological status.