Global prevalence of human papillomavirus-driven oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma following the ASCO guidelines: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Objectives to provide accurate information about the global prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (OPSCC). Material and methods a systematic review was performed using three main electronic databases. Studies were independently assessed by two reviewers based on established eligibility criteria, to identify the prevalence of HPV-driven OPSCC following criteria defined by the American Society of Clinical Oncology. Risk of bias was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist. Statistical software MedCalc was used to perform meta-analyses. Results from 2215 records found, 15 were included, reporting data from 6009 patients (time period range: 1980–2016), distributed in 11 countries. Eleven studies were considered as presenting low risk, and four as moderate risk of bias. Using proportion meta-analysis, pooled prevalence of HPV-driven OPSCC was 44.8 % (95 %CI: 36.4–53.5 %; i2 = 97.6 %), with the highest rates in New Zealand (74.5 %; 95 %CI: 60.9–85.3 %), and the lowest in Brazil (11.1 %; 95 %CI: 4.5–21.5 %). HPV prevalence was similar between males (45.7 %; 95 %CI: 36.5–55.0 %; i2 = 96.4 %) and females (42.2 %; 95 %CI: 34.3–50.5 %; i2 = 85.4 %). Mean/median age ranged from 59.1–67.1 years in the HPV-negative group, and from 55.7–63.5 years in the HPV-positive group. There was an overall discordance between testing by p16 (49.4 %; 95 %CI, 38.2–60.5 %; i2 = 96.2 %) and p16+ISH/PCR (44.7 %; 95 %CI, 33.5–56.2 %; i2 = 96.4 %). Conclusion Overall pooled prevalence of HPV-driven OPSCC was approximately 45 %, with similar distribution among males and females. Double p16/HPV-DNA/RNA testing may be considered to increase specificity and prognostic accuracy.