Combined tumor and immune signals from genomes or transcriptomes predict outcomes of checkpoint inhibition in melanoma

Cancer immunotherapy with checkpoint blockade (CPB) leads to improved outcomes in melanoma and other tumor types, but a majority of patients do not respond. High tumor mutation burden (TMB) and high levels of tumor-infiltrating T cells have been associated with response to immunotherapy, but integrative models to predict clinical benefit using DNA or RNA alone have not been comprehensively explored. We sequenced DNA and RNA from melanoma patients receiving CPB, and aggregated previously published data, yielding whole exome sequencing data for 189 patients and bulk RNA sequencing data for 178 patients. Using these datasets, we derived genomic and transcriptomic factors that predict overall survival (OS) and response to immunotherapy. Using whole-exome DNA data alone, we calculated T cell burden (TCB) and B cell burden (BCB) based on rearranged TCR/Ig DNA sequences and found that patients whose melanomas have high TMB together with either high TCB or high BCB survived longer and had higher response rates as compared to patients with either low TMB or TCB/BCB. Next, using bulk RNA-Seq data, differential expression analysis identified 83 genes associated with high or low OS. By combining pairs of immune-expressed genes with tumor-expressed genes, we identified three gene pairs associated with response and survival (Bonferroni P<0.05). All three gene pair models were validated in an independent cohort (n=180) (Bonferroni P<0.05). The best performing gene pair model included the lymphocyte-expressed MAP4K1 (Mitogen- Activated Protein Kinase Kinase Kinase Kinase 1) combined with the transcription factor TBX3 (T-Box Transcription Factor 3) which is overexpressed in poorly differentiated melanomas. We conclude that RNA-based (MAP4K1&TBX3) or DNA-based (TCB&TMB) models combining immune and tumor measures improve predictions of outcome after checkpoint blockade in melanoma.