An Air Force Selection Model for the Armed Forces Health Professions Scholarship Program

Abstract : This report describes results of an effort to develop a decision aid that would assist the Air Force Military Personnel Center Surgeon General (AFMPC/SG) in selecting medical students for the Armed Forces Health Professions Scholarship Program. The purpose of the program is to select individuals capable of successfully completing medical school and serving as active duty Air Force officer-physicians. Development of the decision aid was undertaken for two reasons. First, a review of the medical school selection research literature indicated that applicant entrance examination scores and undergraduate grade point averages (GPAs) were accurate indicators of an ability to succeed only in the academic portion of medical school. These measures did not reflect the applicant's ability to complete the internship portion of the program or predict how successful a physician the applicant would be. Also, a review of the selection procedure found the board tended to select a lower percentage of applicants as the selection cycle progressed. A policy model was developed to provide a greater amount of information for the selection board to use and to help the board maintain a consistent selection ratio by establishing a constant cutoff score. Analysis showed that differences between the policy model and the selection board were due to the greater amount and type of information in the policy model and a larger weight placed on GPA by board members. The research concluded with four suggested ways to use the model, with application as a tie-breaking aid being recommended.