Forecasting Heat Waves Using Climatic Anomalies

Heat waves are one of the most significant causes of weather related fatalities. Changnon et al. (1996) documented the 1995 Midwestern United States heat wave, which caused 525 deaths in Chicago and 830 deaths nationwide. The several contributing factors to the deaths in Chicago were attributed to the high dew points, urban heat island effects, aging population, and the lack of ventilation. Kunkel et al. (1996) attributed two essential factors to the fatal affects of the heat wave including the high dew points and the urban heat island effects. The large number of deaths due to the 2003 European heat wave in France and Italy may have been related to population demographics and a lack of the wide use of air conditioning.