Discrepancy between stress electrocardiographic changes and nuclear myocardial perfusion defects in the prognostic assessment of patients with chest pain

Abstract Objectives The aim of the present study was to determine the long-term prognostic value provided by the exercise electrocardiographic (ECG) response to nuclear myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) in the evaluation of patients with chest pain, focusing on patients with a discrepancy between the two tests. Methods A total of 1460 consecutive patients (777 female; 62.6±11.4 years) undergoing exercise myocardial single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) were included. The endpoint was the occurrence of acute coronary syndrome, heart failure or cardiac death during follow-up. Results Ischemic ECG changes were observed during stress testing in 271 patients (18.5%) and 362 patients (24.7%) had positive (abnormal) exercise MPI results. There was a discrepancy between ECG and SPECT findings in 471 patients (32.2%). During the follow-up period (14.0-39.6 months), 224 patients (15.3%) presented cardiac events. The hazard ratios (HR) of ECG and MPI results to predict events were 1.506 (95% CI: 1.113-2.039) and 10.481 (95% CI: 7.799-14.080), respectively. In patients with negative MPI, the ECG response did not predict events (HR 1.214 [95% CI: 0.646-2.282]), the same as in patients with positive MPI (HR 1.203 [95% CI: 0.848-1.705]). Only in hypertensive patients with positive SPECT did the ECG show significant prognostic value (HR 1.937 [95% CI: 1.030-3.642]). In multivariate analysis, positive MPI proved an independent long-term prognostic factor (HR 10.536 [95% CI: 7.759-14.308]), but not ECG (HR 1.356 [95% CI: 0.994-1.850]). Conclusion MPI results (normal vs. abnormal) had strong predictive value and discrepant ECG results had no significant additive prognostic value.