Crash risk and subjective risk perception during urban cycling: Evidence for congruent and incongruent sources

Abstract Background Urban planners frequently neglect the role of subjective risk perception during urban cycling. Several findings suggest a complex relationship between the risk of being involved in a crash and the subjective anticipation of this risk. Data collection and methods We investigate the relation of objective risks (operationalized through crashes involving cyclists) and subjective risk perception (operationalized through citizens’ reports in a crowdsourcing project) in a medium-sized German city. Using GIS methods, these datasets are linked to various infrastructure and traffic properties that have been found relevant for cycling safety. Results Despite a generally high alignment of objective and subjective risk, our findings highlight that the subjective risk perception at a given location can deviate significantly from the actual crash risk. For example, the subjective perception of high risk on one-way streets with bikeways in opposing direction is not matched by a high level of objective risk. Vice versa, some rather dangerous situations (e.g., tram stops) are not perceived as particularly dangerous. Conclusions Understanding why and where cyclists over- or underestimate the actual crash risk may provide a foundation for the design of safer cycling infrastructures, as well as for promoting cycling as a comfortable mode of transportation.