Associations of maternal ambient temperature exposures during pregnancy with the risk of preterm birth and the effect modification of birth order during the new baby boom: A birth cohort study in Guangzhou, China

Abstract Maternal exposures to ambient temperatures during pregnancy may increase the preterm birth (PTB) risk; however, which periods have stronger effects remain controversial. The effects of temperature exposure on PTB in first- and second-born neonate groups may be different during the new baby boom that has followed the Two-child Policy in China. We examined a birth cohort of 4928 pregnant women beginning in 2016 in Guangzhou, China. An inverse distance weighted method was used to estimate the temperature exposure at each individual residential address. A distribution lag non-linear model incorporating a Cox proportional hazard model was employed to estimate the effects of temperature exposure on PTB and test the effects modification of birth order related to the new baby boom. A total of 4101 pregnant women were included, of which 234 (5.7%) experienced PTB. Compared with the mean temperature (23.0 °C), we found a significantly higher risks of PTB associated with high temperatures (i.e, 30 °C [95th centile]) from the 4th to 8th, and 22nd to 27th gestational weeks. A peak effect was found during the 6th week (HR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.26, 2.54) and 24th week (HR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.27, 2.62). The risks of PTB were reduced for low temperatures (i.e. 14 °C [5th centile] versus 23.0 °C) from the 2nd to 10th and 20th to 26th gestational weeks, and the negative peak effect was found during the 4th week (HR = 0.43, 95% CI: 0.26, 0.72) and 23rd week (HR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.43, 0.83). Stratification analyses showed that significant effects of 30 °C versus 23 °C on PTB were observed during the 4th to 8th weeks in the second-born neonate, and the peak effect was found in the 6th week (HR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.31, 3.47). However, we did not find significant effects of 30 °C during the same weeks in the first-born neonate group. Maternal exposures to higher temperatures during pregnancy may increase the risk of PTB, and lower temperatures may decrease the risk of PTB. Stronger effects of temperature exposures during the first trimester on PTB risk were found among the second-born neonates than among the first-born neonates.