The influence of inter-fractional anatomy variation on secondary cancer risk estimates following radiotherapy

Abstract Purpose In silico studies comparing estimated risks of radiation-induced secondary cancer (SC) are frequently performed in assessment of radiotherapy techniques. Since inter-patient anatomy variations can result in considerable differences in estimated risk we aimed to explore the influence of inter-fractional organ motion patterns on SC risk. Methods Volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) and intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) plans were generated on the planning CT (pCT) scans of eight prostate cancer patients. In addition, the treatment plans were re-calculated on 8–9 repeat CTs (rCTs) of each patient acquired throughout the treatment course. Relative risk (RR) of SC (VMAT/IMPT) was calculated for the planned and the re-calculated dose distributions using the organ equivalent dose concept adapted to a linear and a bell-shaped competition dose–response model. Results Day-to-day variations in anatomy lead to fluctuations in SC risk estimates of the same order of magnitude as those caused by inter-patient variations. Using the competition model, the RR range for bladder cancer based on the pCTs was 0.4–3.4, while a considerably wider range was found when including all rCTs (0.2–6.7). There was nevertheless a correlation in RR based on repeat CTs for individual patients, indicating that patient-specific SC risks could be estimated. Conclusions The estimated relative risks varied considerably across rCTs and could change the risk in favour of VMAT/IMPT depending on the anatomy of the day. The results demonstrate the importance of performing in silico studies of SC risk on a cohort of patients or multiple CTs when structures subject to organ motion are involved.