Estimating virtual water and land use transfers associated with future food supply: a scalable food balance approach

Abstract Virtual water or land use is the volume of water or area of land, respectively, used to produce a unit food commodity that is traded. Estimates of future virtual water or land use (as potential mechanisms for mitigating against food insecurity due to resource scarcity) are limited by the need for complex modelling and data requirements regarding trade, for which the data or expertise might be rare or unavailable. This paper presents a simple food balance approach for estimating the status quo food demand and supply and associated virtual water or land use transfers under future conditions. The method is spatially-scalable, accessible to a wider range of users, and illustrated using UK feed barley supply. Key features of the method are: ● Proportionate distribution of a target food item over utilization components is estimated from the FAO Food Balance Sheet of the country of analysis and used to distribute future supply over utilization components. ● The balance between demand and supply is used to estimate the direction and magnitude of virtual water or land use transfers. ● The method can be scaled up from national to regional and global levels and to cover multiple food items.