Prophylactic Radiofrequency Ablation in Asymptomatic Patients With Wolff–Parkinson–White Is Not Yet a Good Strategy A Decision Analysis

Background—Therapeutic management of asymptomatic patients with a Wolff–Parkinson–White (WPW) pattern is controversial. We compared the risk:benefit ratios between prophylactic radiofrequency ablation and no treatment in asymptomatic patients with WPW. Methods and Results—Decision analysis software was used to construct a risk–benefit decision tree. The target population consisted of 20- to 40-year-old asymptomatic patients with WPW without structural fatal heart disease or a family history of sudden cardiac death. Baseline estimates of sudden death and radiofrequency ablation complication rates were obtained from the literature, an empirical data survey, and expert opinion. The outcome measure was death within 10 years. Sensitivity analyses determined the variables that significantly impacted the decision to ablate or not. Threshold analyses evaluated the effects of key variables and the optimum policy. At baseline, the decision to ablate resulted in a reduction of mortality risk of 8.8 patients for 1000 patients compared with abstention. It is necessary to treat 112 asymptomatic patients with WPW to save one life over 10 years. Sensitivity analysis showed that 3 variables significantly impacted the decision to ablate: (1) complication of radiofrequency ablation, (2) success of radiofrequency ablation, and (3) sudden death in asymptomatic patients with WPW. Conclusions—This study provides a decision aid for treating asymptomatic patients with the WPW ECG pattern. Using the model and the population we tested, prophylactic catheter ablation is not yet ready for widespread clinical use. (Circ Arrhythm Electrophysiol. 2013;6:185-190.)