Serum proteomic profiling at diagnosis predicts clinical course, and need for intensification of treatment in inflammatory bowel disease.

Background: Success in personalised medicine in complex disease is critically dependent on biomarker discovery. We profiled serum proteins using a novel proximity extension assay (PEA) to identify diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Methods: We conducted a prospective case-control study in an inception cohort of 552 patients (328 IBD, 224 non-IBD), profiling proteins recruited across 6 centres. Treatment escalation was characterised by the need for biological agents or surgery after initial disease remission. Nested leave-one-out cross validation was used to examine the performance of diagnostic and prognostic proteins. Results: A total of 66 serum proteins differentiated IBD from symptomatic non-IBD controls including Matrix Metalloproteinase-12 (Holm adjusted p=4.1x10-23 ) and Oncostatin-M (OSM, p=3.7x10-16). Nine of these proteins associate with cis- germline variation (59 independent SNPs). Fifteen proteins, all members of TNF independent pathways including interleukin-1 and OSM predicted escalation, over a median follow-up of 518 (IQR 224-756) days. Nested cross-validation of the entire data set allows characterisation of 5-protein-models (96% com-prising five core proteins ITGAV, EpCAM, IL18, SLAMF7, and IL8) which define a high-risk subgroup in IBD (HR 3.90, 95% CI: 2.43-6.26), or allows distinct 2, and 3 protein models for UC and CD respectively. Conclusion: We have characterised a simple oligo-protein panel that has the potential to identify IBD from symptomatic controls and predicts the evolution of disease over time. The technology could be suitable as a point of care testing in defining risk. Further prospective work is required to characterise the utility of the approach.